GavaldaFX Forex Blog

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I don’t know what’s going to happen next, I think no one does. But one thing is for sure: we’ll tell our children and grandchildren about what happened in September 2008, because for sure (at least some of them) will study about this historical economic situation. 

I think technical and even fundamental analysis is literally useless these days, because when central banks put their hands into our game, we’re pretty much screwed… Let’s see what Mother Forex holds us for next week

I had some hard time keeping this blog up to date, because I have started an other one which has the same topic, but is more related to my Forex trading system, namely the TrendStuffer.

So, after Friday’s awesome rally, one could think today will be a day of retracements, but I think else. Given that the war in Georgia is sending dark clouds over the air of EURO zone I expect the rallies of E/U to be very short lived, and also the fact that investors have to digest the -400pips drops in the same pair in only 24 hours tells me that we’ll see more selling action in the near future. The 1.5 magical support line got broken this weekend, and we closed the gap today in the asian session, so I assume the downtrend will continue from here.

Will post charts later, welcome to my forex blog, I hope you’ll have great trades this week!

Today was not so lucky for me, I was expecting a move to the upside from 1.9460 and I went long. As you can see it wasn’t a bright idea, I managed to get out early and reverse the position, but still in the red for today.
Looks like Cable is stuck, in a channel with at least three resistances (mostly intraday) and one support, so guess what, I will favor a downside breakout. From 1.9420 I will jump into a sell-off again, and only up from 1.95 I will consider bid… Looks like new winds blow for the USD, it’s gathering strentgh day by day.

The USD related moves finally brought in some life to the market, as soon as the Cable broke out of the “channel” (technically was not a real channel) I went short and managed to get out at 1.9490 for a good 35 pips profit. I wasn’t around when the bears attacked again and pushed the price down again, oh well, only 51pips for today (yet)

I spotted a “channel” on GBP/USD and when we reached the resistance line last time at 1.9545 I went short and exited at 1.9535 because the movement became flat. I will reenter at the bottom or if a breakout happens.

My GBP/USD buy position was closed while I was sleeping, because I put on a 15pips trailing stop, just in case. Price is very volatile this morning so I don’t have any problems with this 16 points profit now. We’re at a trendline support now which also formed during the night, if price breaks out to the downside I might consider a short position.

Hey guys, Seems like there’s a good support at 1.9525, so I went long now at 1.9540, with a S/L at 1.9515 and TP up in the sky. Maybe we’ll see some retracement after they decided to hold USD rates at 2%…

Which would be negative for the USD. Last one was 50.2 about a month ago. If we see a higher value than 50, that could be the fuel the USD bulls need right now, to break below hard support lines faced after the NFP release.

I was trading GBP/USD, managed to take out +50pips, the direction of my forecast was okay, I was off of the actual amount though. I admit +5k was way too optimist, but clearly we can see that recent numbers, now including NFP, were better than expected, maybe this is another good kick for the USD bulls. As all this week, I will again look for another opportunity to go short on EUR/USD or GBP/USD and long on USD/CHF of course.