GavaldaFX Forex Blog

If we keep current levels until the end of the day (or go even lower), than we’ll have an interesting situation on the daily charts: bot of my two trendlines (one horizontal at 1.3984 (which is ~last week’s low) and the lower TL of a descending wedge will be broken for good. That means the next stop is 1.35, January lows! I wouldn’t dare go long today…

Closing long trade! Profit 9 pips.

I heard that if price can maintain a break of 1.2550 there will be more sellers from there on so watch that level. Market is now waiting for the EuroZone GDP release due in a few minutes. Still holding my long position.
Update: looks like BUY stops are gathering heavily above and around 1.2700. GDP numbers are out: exactly -1.5% as expected. No reaction so far.

Look out for 12.45 GMT today because European Central Bank will announce their decision to cut or hold interest rates. Consensus is they will cut with (at least) .5 points bringing the rate to 1.5%, but there’s also talk about a whole 1-point cut. Trichet doesn’t have a choice today I think, they have to avoid panic in the markets and doing anything other than what market expects will cause speculation and panic… My advise: prepare your EUR shorts for the decision _AND_ Q&A after!

Just a quick scalp to begin the day. A hammer formed on E/U M15 chart, also we’re at 50% of last bull run and a TL that is going up and held the price so far so this seems to be a good risk/reward trade. I still consider E/U to be bearish so be cautios.

I don’t know what’s going to happen next, I think no one does. But one thing is for sure: we’ll tell our children and grandchildren about what happened in September 2008, because for sure (at least some of them) will study about this historical economic situation. 

I think technical and even fundamental analysis is literally useless these days, because when central banks put their hands into our game, we’re pretty much screwed… Let’s see what Mother Forex holds us for next week

I had some hard time keeping this blog up to date, because I have started an other one which has the same topic, but is more related to my Forex trading system, namely the TrendStuffer.

So, after Friday’s awesome rally, one could think today will be a day of retracements, but I think else. Given that the war in Georgia is sending dark clouds over the air of EURO zone I expect the rallies of E/U to be very short lived, and also the fact that investors have to digest the -400pips drops in the same pair in only 24 hours tells me that we’ll see more selling action in the near future. The 1.5 magical support line got broken this weekend, and we closed the gap today in the asian session, so I assume the downtrend will continue from here.

Will post charts later, welcome to my forex blog, I hope you’ll have great trades this week!

Today was not so lucky for me, I was expecting a move to the upside from 1.9460 and I went long. As you can see it wasn’t a bright idea, I managed to get out early and reverse the position, but still in the red for today.
Looks like Cable is stuck, in a channel with at least three resistances (mostly intraday) and one support, so guess what, I will favor a downside breakout. From 1.9420 I will jump into a sell-off again, and only up from 1.95 I will consider bid… Looks like new winds blow for the USD, it’s gathering strentgh day by day.

The USD related moves finally brought in some life to the market, as soon as the Cable broke out of the “channel” (technically was not a real channel) I went short and managed to get out at 1.9490 for a good 35 pips profit. I wasn’t around when the bears attacked again and pushed the price down again, oh well, only 51pips for today (yet)

I spotted a “channel” on GBP/USD and when we reached the resistance line last time at 1.9545 I went short and exited at 1.9535 because the movement became flat. I will reenter at the bottom or if a breakout happens.