GavaldaFX Forex Blog

I had some hard time keeping this blog up to date, because I have started an other one which has the same topic, but is more related to my Forex trading system, namely the TrendStuffer.

So, after Friday’s awesome rally, one could think today will be a day of retracements, but I think else. Given that the war in Georgia is sending dark clouds over the air of EURO zone I expect the rallies of E/U to be very short lived, and also the fact that investors have to digest the -400pips drops in the same pair in only 24 hours tells me that we’ll see more selling action in the near future. The 1.5 magical support line got broken this weekend, and we closed the gap today in the asian session, so I assume the downtrend will continue from here.

Will post charts later, welcome to my forex blog, I hope you’ll have great trades this week!

I was trading GBP/USD, managed to take out +50pips, the direction of my forecast was okay, I was off of the actual amount though. I admit +5k was way too optimist, but clearly we can see that recent numbers, now including NFP, were better than expected, maybe this is another good kick for the USD bulls. As all this week, I will again look for another opportunity to go short on EUR/USD or GBP/USD and long on USD/CHF of course.

It looks like the TL on USD/CHF was confirmed and price bounced, I can see some reversal candles on EUR/USD charts so I’m going with a light position (I would like to add more at the aforementioned resistance lines) @ 1.5605, target about 30pips then we’ll see.

There was a false breakout (in my book) today morning on USD/CHF M15 charts, and now it looks like we have a double top formed, this two indications could mean further slide down, which eventually means EUR/USD is going up. We’re reaching the TL formed overnight on U/C and if it doesn’t hold, I will enter with a short position.

There’s a very strong resistance coming up @ 1.5665 zone, 50% Fibo of June - July high-low, and 50% of Monday high yesterday low also, but before we reach there price will bump into 1.5635, daily pivot line and 38.2% of Monday-Tuesday Hi-Lo… and previous low of 4th July. Very tough.

Not much happened in the Asian session. Early birds of Europe shorters attacked in the morning but found some major bids lying around the 1.5565 area and price immediately bounced. I would like to say that the trend is pointing downwards now, but until we really break out of this range between 1.53 and 1.60 who knows. This is for sure though: I’m looking for an entry to hop in with a short position right now.

Look at this chart, it has two Fibonaccis drawn and the more recent one, the 22 July HIGH and 24 July LOW passed the test: price went up from the bottom to 38.2% and bounced back from that resistance. Maybe we could try to target 138.2% of that Fibo at 1.5509 indicated with a blue line on the screenshot. Obviously this means a lot more selling pressure, 161pips exactly from here.

Back to the wider range one could say… I was stopped out at +3 (with a 15pips trailing stop) on my EUR/USD buy order, and I wasn’t around to get into the sell in time. Now I will have to wait a bit and see how everything turns out before opening another position.

The dollar bulls came to play today sending the crosses back to levels seen on Friday. Looks like this summer just doesn’t want to end… We go up, the we go down like nothing has changed in the past 1 month. Terrible market.

Looks like EUR/USD is trapped in a tight range which had an “almost-fake” breakout to the downside after the news, but trading level is back to “normal” now. I’m looking for a confirmed upside breakout because I believe we’re going higher with this pair, given that market rejected the bears attack for the who knows how many times now.

USD/CHF annoys me a bit in my bullish eur/usd view because this pair also should rise after the breakout of this formation shown on the screenshot. We’re at the confirmation point, testing the previous resistance which now should act as a support. If the test passes, the pair should rise at least 40pips, which would be a sign for further strengthening of the USD. But, Cable and Euro are both climbing higher in the early European session.

Good morning, it looks like EUR/USD is going mad without any reason today morning. Okay, French economic news came out very negative but that does not explain why the quick rebound from the 1.5725 territory. Market is yet again digesting the renewed banking writedowns, now it’s about Merryl Lynch.

The only really important news we have today is the US Consumer Confidence Index du at 14:00 GMT.

Hello gals and guys, again we begin a new trading week. After a very good last week again we have a tremendous amount of important news releases this week so I hope grandioso movements will help us make some good profits. Today not much has happened yet, EUR/USD is a bit higher, GBP/USD is lower (notice the divergence!), USD/CHF came below the 61.8% of Friday’s high and low. I will post charts and analysis in a minute, stay tuned Have a good trading everyone.