GavaldaFX Forex Blog » EUR

Under 1.2550 there’s supposed to be fresh selling interest

Mark Gavalda — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 09:57:45 +0000

I heard that if price can maintain a break of 1.2550 there will be more sellers from there on so watch that level. Market is now waiting for the EuroZone GDP release due in a few minutes. Still holding my long position.
Update: looks like BUY stops are gathering heavily above and around 1.2700. GDP numbers are out: exactly -1.5% as expected. No reaction so far.

ECB rate decision and Q&A today

Mark Gavalda — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 09:52:00 +0000

Look out for 12.45 GMT today because European Central Bank will announce their decision to cut or hold interest rates. Consensus is they will cut with (at least) .5 points bringing the rate to 1.5%, but there’s also talk about a whole 1-point cut. Trichet doesn’t have a choice today I think, they have to avoid panic in the markets and doing anything other than what market expects will cause speculation and panic… My advise: prepare your EUR shorts for the decision _AND_ Q&A after!

Went long on Eur/Usd @ 2573

Mark Gavalda — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 09:45:38 +0000

Just a quick scalp to begin the day. A hammer formed on E/U M15 chart, also we’re at 50% of last bull run and a TL that is going up and held the price so far so this seems to be a good risk/reward trade. I still consider E/U to be bearish so be cautios.

Market outlook, and blog related news

Mark Gavalda — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 05:13:01 +0000

I had some hard time keeping this blog up to date, because I have started an other one which has the same topic, but is more related to my Forex trading system, namely the TrendStuffer.

So, after Friday’s awesome rally, one could think today will be a day of retracements, but I think else. Given that the war in Georgia is sending dark clouds over the air of EURO zone I expect the rallies of E/U to be very short lived, and also the fact that investors have to digest the -400pips drops in the same pair in only 24 hours tells me that we’ll see more selling action in the near future. The 1.5 magical support line got broken this weekend, and we closed the gap today in the asian session, so I assume the downtrend will continue from here.

Will post charts later, welcome to my forex blog, I hope you’ll have great trades this week!

NFP at -51k, good for USD, but for how long?

Mark Gavalda — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:58:30 +0000

I was trading GBP/USD, managed to take out +50pips, the direction of my forecast was okay, I was off of the actual amount though. I admit +5k was way too optimist, but clearly we can see that recent numbers, now including NFP, were better than expected, maybe this is another good kick for the USD bulls. As all this week, I will again look for another opportunity to go short on EUR/USD or GBP/USD and long on USD/CHF of course.

Going short on E/U with a light position

Mark Gavalda — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 07:59:28 +0000

It looks like the TL on USD/CHF was confirmed and price bounced, I can see some reversal candles on EUR/USD charts so I’m going with a light position (I would like to add more at the aforementioned resistance lines) @ 1.5605, target about 30pips then we’ll see.

False break-out on USD/CHF, maybe going down

Mark Gavalda — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 07:49:12 +0000

There was a false breakout (in my book) today morning on USD/CHF M15 charts, and now it looks like we have a double top formed, this two indications could mean further slide down, which eventually means EUR/USD is going up. We’re reaching the TL formed overnight on U/C and if it doesn’t hold, I will enter with a short position.

EUR/USD going up, but will have a hard time

Mark Gavalda — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 07:38:45 +0000

There’s a very strong resistance coming up @ 1.5665 zone, 50% Fibo of June – July high-low, and 50% of Monday high yesterday low also, but before we reach there price will bump into 1.5635, daily pivot line and 38.2% of Monday-Tuesday Hi-Lo… and previous low of 4th July. Very tough.

Not much happened in the Asian session. Early birds of Europe shorters attacked in the morning but found some major bids lying around the 1.5565 area and price immediately bounced. I would like to say that the trend is pointing downwards now, but until we really break out of this range between 1.53 and 1.60 who knows. This is for sure though: I’m looking for an entry to hop in with a short position right now.

EUR/USD may target 138.2%?

Mark Gavalda — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:57:56 +0000

Look at this chart, it has two Fibonaccis drawn and the more recent one, the 22 July HIGH and 24 July LOW passed the test: price went up from the bottom to 38.2% and bounced back from that resistance. Maybe we could try to target 138.2% of that Fibo at 1.5509 indicated with a blue line on the screenshot. Obviously this means a lot more selling pressure, 161pips exactly from here.

EUR/USD was stopped out at +3, missed the sell move

Mark Gavalda — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:42:29 +0000

Back to the wider range one could say… I was stopped out at +3 (with a 15pips trailing stop) on my EUR/USD buy order, and I wasn’t around to get into the sell in time. Now I will have to wait a bit and see how everything turns out before opening another position.

The dollar bulls came to play today sending the crosses back to levels seen on Friday. Looks like this summer just doesn’t want to end… We go up, the we go down like nothing has changed in the past 1 month. Terrible market.