GavaldaFX Forex Blog

It’s that time of the month again. Non Farm Payroll, or Nonfarm Employment Change as some name it is coming up, and the market has been frozen for the last couple of hours waiting for this gigantic economic news release. Consensus expects it at -75k, if it’s better USD goes up like a sky rocket, if it’s worse USD goes down (the toilet). My personal guess is around +5k but that could be far from the actual number. Recent economic indicators were positive for the US so I assume it is possible that we’ll see a (very) positive number today also.
Coming up in 10 minutes!

It looks like the TL on USD/CHF was confirmed and price bounced, I can see some reversal candles on EUR/USD charts so I’m going with a light position (I would like to add more at the aforementioned resistance lines) @ 1.5605, target about 30pips then we’ll see.

There was a false breakout (in my book) today morning on USD/CHF M15 charts, and now it looks like we have a double top formed, this two indications could mean further slide down, which eventually means EUR/USD is going up. We’re reaching the TL formed overnight on U/C and if it doesn’t hold, I will enter with a short position.

There’s a very strong resistance coming up @ 1.5665 zone, 50% Fibo of June - July high-low, and 50% of Monday high yesterday low also, but before we reach there price will bump into 1.5635, daily pivot line and 38.2% of Monday-Tuesday Hi-Lo… and previous low of 4th July. Very tough.

Not much happened in the Asian session. Early birds of Europe shorters attacked in the morning but found some major bids lying around the 1.5565 area and price immediately bounced. I would like to say that the trend is pointing downwards now, but until we really break out of this range between 1.53 and 1.60 who knows. This is for sure though: I’m looking for an entry to hop in with a short position right now.

I hope you gave some thought to the USD/CHF chart I posted in the morning, because the test I was talking about got confirmed and the price shoot up like a rocket, and it doesn’t want to stop yet. I’m in +117 profits since then and I’m considering letting it go, so I put a S/L to +107 points at 1.0436.

Maybe the USD weakening is in the past? Consumer Confidence Index came out at 51.9 which is a LOT better than the expected 50.0. This could mean that the US economy is getting stronger yet again, at least for a short period. EUR/USD went down the toliet after the news, USD/CHF skyrocketed into the air. Market’s getting better guys

Look at this chart, it has two Fibonaccis drawn and the more recent one, the 22 July HIGH and 24 July LOW passed the test: price went up from the bottom to 38.2% and bounced back from that resistance. Maybe we could try to target 138.2% of that Fibo at 1.5509 indicated with a blue line on the screenshot. Obviously this means a lot more selling pressure, 161pips exactly from here.

One really important news today: a leading indicator of near future consumer spending, the Consumer Confidence Index. Consensus is at 50.0, there has been a decrease in CCI for about 6 months now; it will be interesting to see if a positive number comes out, what would that mean: more USD buying? I guess so. But if a worse number comes out, it could mean a retrace in USD related pairs, at least for a couple of hours.

Back to the wider range one could say… I was stopped out at +3 (with a 15pips trailing stop) on my EUR/USD buy order, and I wasn’t around to get into the sell in time. Now I will have to wait a bit and see how everything turns out before opening another position.

The dollar bulls came to play today sending the crosses back to levels seen on Friday. Looks like this summer just doesn’t want to end… We go up, the we go down like nothing has changed in the past 1 month. Terrible market.

I just went long at the range bottom for some quick pips. S/L is 15 pips below at 1.5717 and I target the top of the range or maybe even more…